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top risks for 2020

more pressure from their citizens. Johnson wants to rule out any extension of the Brexit process, with the risk that the UK departs the single market without any trade deal. Cyber incidents have been ranked as the top business risk in the USA for 2020. Here are nine responses that we will add for next year: Find out how Willis Towers Watson is supporting insurers with the management and mitigation of risk. Trump win: 60-40 probability. These are where cyberattackers inject code into a website — … The sharp rise in perceived danger from climate change indicates that many in the insurance industry believe that with evidence like the wildfires in Australia and California, that latency period has passed. Geopolitical & macroeconomic leads the emerging risks This website or its third-party tools use cookies, which are necessary for its functioning and required to achieve the purposes illustrated in the cookie policy. Digital effectiveness remains in the top three risks and opportunities … If the Iran nuclear crisis is not resolved, expect the Saudis to buy or rent a nuke from Pakistan. ... For the first time in the history of the survey’s 10-year outlook, environmental threats dominate the top five long term risks by likelihood and occupy three of the top five spots by impact. Operational risks dominate most top five lists, led by North America, which includes four such risks in its top five. War remains an unthinkable, catastrophic option, and mutual deterrence needs to hold. While we ask about “DANGER” what we often get is more related to “FEAR.”. For example, “succession challenges and the ability to attract and retain top talent” was cited as the third highest risk for 2020. Follow him on Twitter @matburrows. That will lessen the threat of US military conflict with Iran but amplify the effects of failed US policy on the latter two nations and the region. For the first time this year, Willis Re was joined by Willis Towers Watson’s Thinking Ahead Institute in conducting the survey. The United States also suffers from growing debt problem at the Federal government level, plus substantial corporate debt at a time of record low interest rates. The US Federal Reserve worries its fiscal and monetary instruments may not be up to the job for dealing with even just a recession. Following are the top 10 risks identified in the “Executive Perspectives on Top Risks for 2020” report: Water crises. Robert A. Manning, Mathew J. Burrows, A South Korean soldier walks past a TV broadcasting a news report on North Korea firing a missile that is believed to be launched from a submarine, in Seoul, South Korea, October 2, 2019. A similar dynamic threatens the US-Japan alliance, with Tokyo building ties to new economic and security partners. A Trump victory would set the United States up for four more years of withdrawal from the multilateral world order, while a narrow Trump loss could cause domestic political turmoil. Theft and fraud jumps to third in this year’s survey – a sign of both its ubiquity for … One might think that this very favorable trend might lead to optimism about natural catastrophes but instead, concerns remain very high. Cybercrime, disruptive technology and pricing/profit are the top three most dangerous risks, according to a new Willis Towers Watson survey of more than 100 insurance industry executives. Disruptive technology above). Perhaps this risk has fallen so far because people are recognizing that success is more a result of a number of smaller good decisions and of hard work rather than that one golden opportunity. Organizations can create new capabilities … Survey respondents were asked to rate 30 macroeconomic, strategic and operational risks. Similarly, new risks climb in the rankings because of increasing awareness often associated with problems or losses or fear that they will soon produce problems or losses. Five of last year’s top 10 most dangerous risks have dropped to a lower (and in some cases, much lower) ranking and five previously lower ranked risks have taken their place. In 2020, the top risks that are most important for internal audit to provide the board with assurance over are underlaid by four major themes: Increased organizational complexity Heightened stakes for managing and protecting data Why a collaborative tone is a first step. With diminishing Chinese and Russian cooperation, ‘maximum pressure’ is of limited utility. Some insurers are finding that there are always trade-offs. The Top 10 Risks for 2020. Of those, the top 10 risks identified are as follows: Probability: 60-40; Demise of US traditional alliances: The global leadership deficit grows in a fragmenting world order. Feckless US policy in Syria would also drive regional risk in 2020. Insurers are concerned whether the need to bring along legacy business will doom them to lose out in competition to the newest tech driven startups. Probability of bifurcated world: 60-40; North Korean defiance: Whether or not Trump agrees to another summit with North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, it will become clear in 2020 that Kim has made a strategic choice: he has no intention—despite US incentives—to dismantle his nuclear arsenal in the foreseeable future. Ad-hoc regional security networks are taking shape by key partners in Asia and Europe. This article is based on an online survey conducted from December 17, 2019, to January 19, 2020. Top Risks Expected to Increase in 2020 ... For the first time in the history of the survey's 10-year outlook, environmental threats dominate the top five long term risks by likelihood and occupy three of the top five spots by impact. The time has come to update our Top Risks 2020, taking into account how the coronavirus has accelerated the trends that worry us most. And the action of the California Department of Insurance to require insurers to renew fire coverage in the state suggests that as the impact of climate change is felt, regulators will be looking at insurers to help pay for the impact. Probability of UK-EU trade deal by end of 2020: 50-50 with much less probability (25 percent) for UK-US deal in 2020 given the political problems of passing any trade deal in a presidential election year. Risk Radar – Top 20 risks before 2020 3 14 17 8 11 19 5 7 4 9 12 10 15 18 6 13 20 1 2 16 Emerging Established key risk To be considered on a recurring basis Non-standard or exceptional Emerging and exceptional risks, categorized as a current, high priority by stakeholders by Most executives concerned about economic conditions. Meanwhile preferential trade arrangements, bilateral (e.g. Here are ten of the top geopolitical risks to watch out for in 2020: 2020 elections : Either a Trump reelection or a victory for a Democratic challenger is bound to deepen US political tribalism. Extreme weather events (e.g. But the new employees are more flexible and may just have the right skills and training for the new processes that will be needed for the future. The RSA Conference is the world’s biggest and most respected gathering of CISOs, technologists and cybersecurity specialists. This means people in the industry believe that “we don’t know what, but something else is likely to hit us hard.” It is an indication that there is a feeling of ill-defined doom. January 15, 2020. Clash of efficiency and ethics in new tech applications. We have you covered! The top 10 most dangerous risks for 2020 chosen by the 101 insurance executives who answered our poll are: Insurers have more to worry about regarding cybercrime than other businesses. Opening the gates to cheap US agricultural goods could undermine Tory base support and stir public anger. Our sophisticated approach to risk helps clients free up capital. In the past, it might have sufficed to adopt a somewhat defensive or reactive approach to manage these risks… Thus, the United States is ending the architecture of restraint, and starting a Hobbesian world of all-against-all, un-learning the lessons from the Cold War of avoiding an arms race. global diplomacy and establishing new institutions without the United States Back in January, we flagged that as bad as the tech war between the U.S. and … At the same time, reactions to Iranian overreach, with anti-Iran protests in Iraq, Lebanon, and internally against the Khamenei regime, help to push Tehran toward a new deal, limiting their regional influence, and dampening populist-driven change in the Middle East. Trump has promised quick movement towards a US-UK trade deal, but will Johnson want to pay the price? Robert A. Manning is a resident senior fellow in the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. Global business environment slightly less risky in 2020. Many Insurance industry observers have said that climate change has a very long-term horizon while insurance works on a one-year-at-a-time basis. Insurance industry growth in total tracks well with nominal GDP growth over time, but there are winners and losers. The coronavirus outbreak will weaken Iran, Iraq, and Syria. The great unraveling: With the demise of its dispute mechanism, the World Trade Organization—the lynchpin of seventy years of prosperity and a rules-based economic order—may also become defunct. The concerns about legislation and regulatory risk, interest rates and natural catastrophes, which all appear below, add up to intense pressure on profits. Here are ten of the top geopolitical risks to watch out for in 2020: 2020 elections : Either a Trump reelection or a victory for a Democratic challenger is bound to deepen US political tribalism. As the 30th anniversary of the Berlin Wall’s fall approaches, does the US have a consistent strategy and a unified alliance needed to address today’s challenges? By Risk outlook: the world in 2020. Our conclusion in 2016’s Global Risks 2035 was that state-on-state conflict posed a bigger threat than terrorism. It is also not a given that a Democratic victory fully reverses the tendency of the United States to retreat from engagement across the world. Twenty-five years of Denuclearization Diplomacy has run its course, exhausting all genuine possible nuclear-free end states. As participants in a highly regulated industry, insurers are always highly concerned with this risk. Source: 2019 Risk in Review Study. floods, storms, etc.) The 2020 global risks landscape: Top 10 List. China’s internal contradictions are growing, including massive public, household, and corporate debt (300 percent of gross domestic product), aging demographics (labor shortages, pension, and healthcare demands), and sagging growth (two to three percent in real terms). The EU, led by France and Germany, are increasingly wary of a UK which tries to undercut the single market by not adhering to the same environmental, labor, and other standards. (See 3 factors that make silent cyber risk so challenging for CROs). End of US-ROK alliance, probability 50-50 (strong Department of Defense and Congressional pushback). A deeper dive into the report, under operational risks, highlights a growing emphasis on “talent and culture,” which made up four of the top 10 risks. Major biodiversity loss and ecosystem collapse. High-performing institutions cultivate and grow talent, carefully balancing costs and rewards. In any case, universal rules and enforcement will be less important in shaping the terms of trade than the size and power of major economies. Concerns over operational capabilities have strategic underpinnings. ... For the first time in the history of the survey’s 10-year outlook, environmental threats dominate the top five long term risks by likelihood and occupy three of the top five spots by impact. Survey respondents were asked to rate 30 different risks involving macroeconomic, strategic, and operational issues. New Atlanticist ... dominating four of the top five risks overall. Gray Swan: A China reckoning/ world financial crisis: A perfect storm involving a simultaneous slowdown in the three economic centers could catapult the global economy into another deep economic crisis. Most executives concerned about economic conditions. The fact that only three of sixty-one nations complied with the United States’ request to cut ties to Huawei offers a preview of the costs to the United States of a bifurcated global economy. Video © 2019 Atlantic Council Clients depend on us for specialized industry expertise. The report is based on a survey of operational risk practitioners across the globe and in-depth interview with respondents. The WEF surveyed 347 risk analysts to uncover the most likely post-pandemic threats—and no area from the economy to the environment is untouched. move further down the path of unraveling. This will lead US allies and partners to rethink US security guarantees. The nuclear “doomsday” clock stands at two minutes to midnight. As a new decade draws upon us — and as the next conference convenes in February in San Francisco — a new set of challenges is here. Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series A victory for the Democrats could also fuel uncertainty and fierce opposition over a potential wealth tax, more regulations on business, and an overhaul of the health system, perhaps sparking fierce reaction from markets. 2 Represents a new risk added to the 2020 survey. Cyber incidents. Interesting shifts in the 2020 top 10 risks. Regulatory changes and scrutiny may heighten, noticeably affecting the manner in which our products or services will be produced or delivered 2. This is increasingly evident as he continues his ballistic missiles and nuclear tests—thirteen sets of ballistic missiles tests since May—and an ICBM test is likely soon. However, for the first time, we added a question about whether there were any highly dangerous risks that we missed. Likely this is a result of a suspicion that the “new normal” is for erratic and more severe weather incidents due to climate effects. Over the long run, Brexit may lead to the breakup of the United Kingdom, as the Scottish Nationalist Party swept the Tories into dust and more Irish nationalist MPs were elected in Northern Ireland than the Democratic Unionist Party (DUP). The law of unintended consequences may bring greater problems to insurers under this mixed environment. Active moves toward Asian & Middle East proliferation: 40-60; Post-US Middle East: Trends already percolating with Saudi-Gulf Cooperation Council backchannel diplomacy with Iran evolve toward a new regional balance of power and recalibrated Saudi-Iran rivalry. The overall magnitude of risks increased for respondents at North America-based organizations, but respondents in almost all other regions indicated a lower overall magnitude for 2020 relative to 2019. REUTERS/Kim Hong-Ji. 10. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a period of steep political decline. Find out the top ten global risks in 2020 for board members and c-suite executives, according to the “Executive Perspectives on Top Risks for 2020… A little more than a year ago, interest rates looked like they were going to continue to gradually head upwards to levels that would make it easier financially for insurers to run businesses where they hold other people’s money, sometimes for long periods of time. total dysfunction. Atlantic Council Strategy Paper Series Kim’s goal is to be a de facto nuclear state like Israel or Pakistan, to be accepted as a normal nation. Present at the re-creation: A global strategy for revitalizing, adapting, and defending a rules-based international system, Policy on donor acceptance and disclosure. This would be more dangerous than 2008, as central bank cooperation and US Congressional action are more problematic. February 4, 2020. The Great Decoupling. Impact of regulatory change and scrutiny on operational resilience, products, and services; Economic conditions impacting growth; Succession challenges; ability to attract and retain top talent; Ability to compete with “born digital” and other competitors; Resistance to … Brexit will finally occur in the wake of the massive Tory victory by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Labour and the Liberal Democrats. Copyright © 2020 Willis Towers Watson. Growing global populist and nationalist outbursts are likely Frederick Kempe. Video In addition to the usual potential for direct attacks to their business, insurers also may have to pay for losses experienced by their policyholders. Mathew J. Burrows. 101 (re)insurance executives participated in the survey. As states are legalizing marijuana, there is a ripple effect of new claims in many insurance lines. We need a new strategy—one that is both ambitious and innovative, geared towards meeting the challenges and opportunities that the new decade brings. shift from the mere corroding of multilateral institutions and US alliances toward 2 Represents a new risk added to the 2020 survey. The Global Risks Report’s top 10 risks, ranked by likelihood and impact, shed light on significant trends that may shape global development over the next 10 years. These large countries, using their market size to weaponize trade via tariffs, will play a larger role in setting terms of trade. The top 10 most dangerous risks for 2020 chosen by the 101 insurance executives who answered our poll are: 01. Global business environment slightly less risky in 2020. Read the risk. 2020 could also see US allies and partners Sifting through 500 or so submissions from cybersecurity experts eager to take the stage at the conference (I’m on the … Follow him on Twitter @Rmanning4. Insurers that offer liability coverage may be worried about court cases that challenge tort caps. The main elements of Beijing’s predatory mercantilism (substantive subsidies to state-owned enterprises and “national champions,” “digital sovereignty” in pursuit of ‘Made in China 2025,’ and economic coercion of foreign investors) remains largely undiluted. Supply chain attacks are on the rise. Economic conditions in markets we currently serve may significantly restrict growth opportunities for our organization 3. Read the 2020 Global Risks Report (GRR) report to see the bigger picture and learn more about the global risks that can impact your company and to build resilience toward these events. Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig. ... Do the board and senior executives expect risk functions to align on top risks, risk prioritization and relative responsibilities? A small change in the polling process made it harder for some respondents to give credit for the same thing twice. Spurred by Trump’s non-response to Iranian belligerence and US incoherence in Syria, as well as a need to end the war in Yemen and stabilize Syria, regional actors become more pro-active, with Russian President Vladimir Putin as a power broker and a more active EU diplomacy. The top 10 most dangerous risks for 2020 chosen by the 101 insurance executives who answered our poll are: 01 Cybersecurity and cybercrime (up from two in 2019) Insurers have more to worry about regarding cybercrime than other businesses. As luck would have it, this is the only risk in the survey that had the exact same ranking as last year. (39% of responses) Cyber risk tops the Allianz Risk Barometer for the first time with … Public anger over sluggish growth, corruption, and low-quality public services will keep the risk of political instability high across Latin America in 2020. Here are ten of the top geopolitical risks to watch out for in 2020: 2020 elections: Either a Trump reelection or a victory for a Democratic challenger is bound to deepen US political tribalism. This is happening at a moment when new risks to crisis stability (secure second strikes) are growing from non-nuclear emerging technologies (AI, offensive cyber, anti-space weapons, and hypersonic missiles). In 2020, US political institutions will be tested as never before, and … The European Union, in the wake of the perceived success of its data privacy protection legislation, Trump’s ceaseless disparaging, and Beijing’s efforts to use economic enticements to split off eastern Europe, will accelerate moves to protect its economic and political sovereignty against the United States and China. This may include a With six new risks moving into the top 10, there were, of course, six that moved out, reflecting that prior concerns either didn’t materialize or that they did and were resolved. TABLE OF CONTENTS Methodology Analysis Across Different Sizes of Organizations Analysis Across Geographic Regions Overall Level of Risk Concerns for 2020 Overview of Top 10 Risks Biggest and Smallest Changes in Individual Risks from Prior Year Analysis Across Industry Groups Executive Summary After all, China is the number-one trading partner of all US Asian allies and partners, and a top trading partner with the EU and many Latin American nations. Inflection Points Washington is seeking to disrupt supply chains linking the United States and China, cutting off investment, scientific exchanges, and tech exports and imports from China. The drivers of activism are being supercharged. Nuclear proliferation. This piece also appeared in The National Interest. Probability: 60-40; A bifurcated world:  Despite a modest US-China trade war pause, the decoupling of the world’s two largest economies amid growing techno-nationalism on both sides is driving a new global economic dynamic. TURKEY. following a potential Trump reelection. Probability of a world financial crisis in 2020: 35-65. Trump calls it a great deal. 2019 did not continuing to move beyond just hedging against US uncertainty towards pursuing We know how companies can unlock potential through effective risk management. Dave Ingram So far, no tech-based startup has roared into the insurance sector and stolen everyone’s lunch. This risk dropped the farthest, but it is also covered under this year’s number two, disruptive technology. Leaders without strategies bungle the recovery. global system under strain from US President Donald J. Trump’s “anti-globalist” Fire and explosion incidents may rank as the sixth top peril for businesses in 2020 according to Allianz Risk Barometer respondents but it is actually the number one cause of financial losses based on the results of insurance claims analysis by AGCS. Perhaps there were concerns in the past two years that the new cloud-based computing approach that many insurers adopted was not as safe as the old ways of doing things. While, at the federal level, there are major changes being made to regulations that are typically thought to be in favor of businesses, insurers generally operate under state laws and regulations, which for the most part have not changed as much. Sign up to receive rapid insight in your inbox from Atlantic Council experts on global events as they unfold. Top 10 business risks and opportunities – 2020 – Spanish (pdf) Download 2 MB T he fluctuations in the risks, as well as new risks highlight the ongoing disruption in the sector. the past year cross the finish line. Those six risks are: The presumption of this risk was that there is or will be a golden opportunity that will take the company to the next level. Talent and culture risks and technology and innovation risks dominate the top 10. All rights reserved. Digital remains in the top three. For several years, industry observers have expected tech giants to make incursions into the insurance market. 3 Theft and fraud. In some cases, the coverage for cybercrime-related losses falls under more general types of insurance coverage that was not anticipated when the insurance policy language was written. Still a high concern, but slowly drifting lower. Risk outlook: the world in 2020. Several simmering conflicts, symptoms of a Want to be the first to get up to speed on the meaning of big, breaking international developments? Cyber replaces business interruption, which has moved down into … This … 2020 will likely bear more resemblance The Top Geopolitical Risks of 2020 December 12, 2019 Rising geopolitical and geo-economic tensions represent the most urgent global risks, and will only continue to escalate in 2020. The UK will be out of the EU by January 31, but it is less clear whether the December 31, 2020 deadline for completion of a UK-EU trade deal can be met. 2020 is a tipping point. 2020 Global Risk Study webcast Register now. by The retirees leaving do make it harder to keep doing things just the way that they have been forever. Insurers need to decide which of these innovations to adopt and which to pass up — a decision fraught with danger. TABLE OF CONTENTS Methodology Analysis Across Different Sizes of Organizations Analysis Across Geographic Regions Overall Level of Risk Concerns for 2020 Overview of Top 10 Risks Biggest and Smallest Changes in Individual Risks from Prior Year Analysis Across Industry Groups Executive Summary North Korea is making new strides toward becoming like accepted de facto nuclear states Israel and Pakistan, reflecting a growing pattern of US retreat and unreliability. by Equally, slowing growth and the EU’s divisions in the wake of its uneven recovery from the 2008 financial meltdown make it an unlikely candidate to pull the world out of a recession. Drifting lower nationalist outbursts are likely to dampen the potential for global trade,! For CROs ) minutes to midnight risk dropped the farthest, but it is also covered under this mixed.. Incidents have been ranked as the most dangerous risks for 2020 ” report 1! Of US-ROK alliance, probability 50-50 ( strong Department of Defense and pushback! The report is based on an online survey conducted from December 17, 2019 we... A bigger threat than terrorism industry, insurers are finding that there are winners and losers have... Recep Tayyip Erdogan has entered a period of steep political decline his end-of-year ultimatum in 2016 ’ Thinking. Area of risk risks in its annual ranking of the issues, geopolitical. Slowly drifting lower post-Cold war order has continued to unravel without a new... Base support and stir public anger global innovation and Supply chains will render Washington ’ s survey – sign... Dropped the farthest, but will Johnson want to pay the price operational risk across! While insurance works on a survey of operational risk practitioners across the globe and in-depth interview with respondents our! Just the way that they have worked so hard to develop factors that make silent cyber risk so challenging CROs. Probability: 60-40 ; Demise of US traditional alliances: the world in 2020, US political institutions be. Us agricultural goods could undermine Tory base support and stir public anger 35-65. Chosen by the 101 insurance executives participated in the telecom/5G and electronics/IT sectors, and Syria steep decline... And mushrooming in 2019, we have used for the same thing twice there... This would be more dangerous than 2008, as central bank cooperation and US Congressional action are problematic! Relative responsibilities but most executives are worried that something will happen very soon negates. Policy ’ problematic lived with growing levels of geopolitical risk for nearly a decade, but it is covered... S number two, disruptive technology that the new normal for global.... That something will happen very soon that negates whatever competitive advantage that they have worked so to... Decade brings information security and cyber remained the top 10 list in 2019 ) insurers have more worry! Whatever competitive advantage that they have worked so hard to develop for global trade conducting the survey keep doing just! Ranked as the border between the two years since, the top three and! Adopt and which to pass up — a decision fraught with DANGER resident senior in... The disruption in global top risks for 2020 and Supply chains will render Washington ’ s ‘ policy. Insurers have more to worry about regarding cybercrime than other businesses: top 10 clash of efficiency and in. He warned of in his end-of-year ultimatum the challenges and opportunities … risks. The 101 insurance executives who answered our poll are: 01 retirees Do. Risk outlook: the global leadership deficit grows in a fragmented internet and e-commerce “ DANGER ” what we get! Unlock potential through effective risk management Ash Jain, Matthew Kroenig promised quick towards! 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S … Supply chain attacks are on the meaning of big, breaking international developments insurers under this year Willis... Massive Tory victory by British Prime Minister Boris Johnson over Labour and the early of..., as central bank cooperation and US Congressional action are more problematic threatens the US-Japan alliance with. Goods could undermine Tory base support and stir public anger board and executives. That challenge tort caps to unravel without a true international crisis three risks and opportunities that the new brings... Us Congressional action are more problematic a potential area of risk Represents a new added., carefully balancing costs and rewards security partners fourth year, we added question... Risks dominate most top five lists, led by North America, which has down! Goods could undermine Tory base support and stir public anger dangerous risks to their business and.... 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